The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its 2025 global growth projection to 3.2%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from previous estimates. This cautiously optimistic outlook comes as the world economy shows unexpected resilience to trade policy disruptions, according to Tuesday's World Economic Outlook report.
While maintaining its 2026 forecast at 3.1%, the IMF sounded alarms about persistent trade tensions, particularly highlighting the United States' effective tariff rate of 19%. The report emphasized that ongoing uncertainty in US trade policy continues to create challenges for businesses navigating international markets.
China remains a stabilizing force in global commerce, with the IMF keeping its 2025 growth forecast for the country steady at 4.8%. Despite shifting trade patterns, China reported a 4% year-on-year increase in foreign trade for the first three quarters of 2025. While exports to the US declined, this was balanced by increased shipments to ASEAN nations and European markets.
Analysts suggest these developments underscore Asia's growing influence in shaping global economic trends, even as major economies grapple with trade policy complexities.
