China’s film industry is poised for a historic milestone as its 2025 box office prepares to overtake 2024’s full-year earnings during the National Day holiday period. With year-to-date revenue reaching 42 billion yuan ($5.9 billion) as of late September, the market stands just 500 million yuan shy of last year’s total – a gap likely to close swiftly with major holiday releases now in theaters.
Blockbusters Fuel Growth
The animated sequel Ne Zha 2 leads 2025’s charge, contributing over 15.4 billion yuan since its Lunar New Year debut. Other standouts include detective thriller Detective Chinatown 1900 (3.6B yuan) and summer hits like Dead to Rights (3B yuan). September’s WWII drama Evil Unbound, exposing Imperial Japan’s Unit 731 atrocities, added 1.5 billion yuan to the tally.
Holiday Lineup Dynamics
This year’s eight-day National Day holiday features Chen Kaige’s war trilogy finale The Volunteers: Peace at Last and fantasy sequel A Writer’s Odyssey II. Pre-sales surpassed 100 million yuan before opening day, though analysts note the absence of a clear breakout hit. Maoyan analyst Lai Li observed: "Strong word-of-mouth could still drive significant performance given the extended holiday window."
Franchise Power Emerges
Industry watchers highlight growing reliance on established intellectual property (IP), mirroring Hollywood trends. Beacon analyst Chen Jin noted: "Sequels and franchises now dominate, showing maturity in China’s film industrialization." Successful series like The Volunteers (50 million admissions) and new animated IP Three Kingdoms: Starlit Heroes underscore this shift.
With 2025’s total expected to surpass 2024’s 42.5B yuan within days, all eyes are on whether annual revenue can cross the symbolic 50B yuan threshold – a key indicator of post-pandemic recovery for the world’s second-largest film market.
