In the world of game theory, a zero-sum game is a trap. When players believe that one side's gain must inevitably be another's loss, they find themselves locked in endless cycles of moves and countermoves, where stability remains elusive and no one truly wins. The only solution is to change the game itself.
This perspective is particularly relevant as the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) convenes the 23rd Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. While security discussions often default to zero-sum thinking, the current global landscape reveals a wealth of shared interests that are both visible and actionable.
The timing of this year's dialogue is pivotal. It opens just two weeks after US President Donald Trump concluded a three-day state visit to Beijing. The visit resulted in a new framework of "constructive strategic stability," marking a deliberate pivot away from the severe decoupling tensions seen in 2025, a year when US-China goods trade plummeted by over 25%. With the reopening of previously frozen communication channels and the planned establishment of trade and investment councils to address tariffs, the momentum is shifting toward stability.
While complexities remain regarding technology, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan region, the high-level engagement between the two leaders has provided a signal of reassurance to a region eager for predictability. The Shangri-La Dialogue is now well-positioned to build upon this positive trajectory.
One of the most pressing opportunities for cooperation is maritime security. A central focus of the dialogue is "Asia's Maritime Security Disorder," a challenge highlighted by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Since late February, the closure of the strait—which handles roughly 20% of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas—has slashed shipping traffic to approximately 5% of pre-conflict levels, severely impacting energy-importing economies across Asia.
Despite their differences, both the Chinese mainland and the United States have called for guaranteed freedom of navigation. This shared demand transforms maritime security from a mere agenda item into a genuine opening for practical cooperation, proving that shared vulnerability can serve as a foundation for broader dialogue.
The economic arguments for such cooperation are equally compelling. Asia-Pacific economies currently account for about one-third of all global value chain trade. According to the Asian Development Bank, developing economies in the region have more than doubled their share from 9% to 18% between 2000 and 2023.
Recent data underscores this deep interdependence. In 2025, trade between China and ASEAN crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time, with China remaining ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. With ASEAN projected to grow by 4.6% in 2026, driven by robust domestic demand, the region continues to be a primary destination for global capital.
Further industrial complementarity is evident in other key partnerships. Trade between China and South Korea has exceeded $300 billion, characterized by a symbiotic relationship where South Korean advanced chips complement Chinese components. Similarly, Japan exported $120.46 billion worth of goods to China, which stands as one of Japan's two largest export markets. Even amid previous tariff tensions, China-US goods trade totaled $574.66 billion in 2025, demonstrating that these economies remain inextricably intertwined.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
