In a significant shift within the euro zone's economic landscape, Italy is set to overtake Greece as the bloc's most indebted country by the end of 2026, according to sources and official data.
Based on estimates from two senior officials speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, Greece's public debt is projected to decline to around 137% of its gross domestic product (GDP) this year, down from 146.1% in 2025.
Conversely, Italy's debt ratio is expected to peak at 138.6% of GDP in 2026, a rise of 1.5 percentage points from 137.1% in 2025, as outlined in the Treasury's multi-year budget plan published this week.
The officials confirmed that Greece will cease to hold the title of the euro zone's most indebted nation from this year onward. The new estimate for Greece's debt ratio will be formally included in the country's multi-year fiscal plan, which is scheduled for submission to the European Commission by the end of April 2026.
Looking ahead, Italy's budget plan indicates that its debt will stabilize at approximately 138.5% in 2027, before gradually decreasing to 137.9% in 2028 and 136.3% in 2029.
This reversal in debt rankings underscores the ongoing fiscal challenges and recovery trajectories within the euro zone, a region closely watched by global markets and investors for its impact on worldwide economic stability.
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Italy set to replace Greece as euro zone's most indebted country
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