For the first time since 2023, ASEAN's strategic compass has swung decisively toward Beijing, according to the 2026 State of Southeast Asia survey released by Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. The annual barometer of regional elite opinion reveals 52% of respondents now see China as ASEAN's preferred partner, edging out the United States' 48% support.
This year's results highlight dramatic national variations: Indonesia (80.1%), Malaysia (68%), and Singapore (66.3%) show strongest confidence in Beijing. The shift comes as China-ASEAN trade maintains robust growth following 2025's $1 trillion milestone, with green energy and digital infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative creating new economic synergies.
Analysts point to contrasting approaches as key drivers. "ASEAN's development priorities align with China's commitment to multilateral cooperation," observed Wang Huiyao of the Center for China and Globalization. The implementation of the 2026-2030 China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Action Plan promises deeper integration during China's 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Conversely, 51.9% of respondents identified "US leadership under President Donald Trump" as their top geopolitical concern – surpassing even transnational crime. Singapore (76.8%) and Indonesia (67.8%) expressed particular apprehension about Washington's policy continuity.
As ASEAN nations navigate great power competition, the survey underscores regional priorities: economic stability through concrete partnerships and aversion to perceived unilateralism. With China-ASEAN collaboration entering a new implementation phase this year, the balance of regional trust appears increasingly measurable in Beijing's favor.
