A new UNESCO report released on February 23, 2026 reveals critical uncertainties in understanding how oceans absorb atmospheric carbon, potentially undermining global climate strategies. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's analysis shows current models may overestimate ocean carbon uptake by 10-20%, with regional variations exceeding these margins.
Scientists attribute discrepancies to insufficient long-term data and incomplete knowledge of how warming waters affect carbon storage mechanisms. These gaps could leave policymakers ill-prepared if ocean absorption capacity declines, allowing more CO₂ to remain in the atmosphere and accelerating temperature rise.
"Climate targets set this decade might require revision if we don't improve our understanding," the report cautions, noting that 74% of national climate plans reference ocean-based solutions without sufficient supporting data. Researchers particularly highlight unknown risks regarding carbon cycling in tropical waters and polar regions.
The roadmap proposes tripling international ocean monitoring efforts by 2030 through satellite networks and autonomous underwater drones. It urges APEC members and WTO members to standardize marine carbon measurement protocols, emphasizing that coordinated action could reduce modeling uncertainties by 45% within five years.
With coastal Asian nations facing disproportionate climate risks, the findings carry particular urgency for regional policymakers. The report coincides with preparations for November's APEC Leaders’ Meeting, where ocean climate strategies will feature prominently in agenda discussions.
