As Cuba faces its most severe fuel shortage in decades, recent tariff threats by former U.S. President Donald Trump have intensified concerns about the island nation's energy security. Current developments show Mexico – Cuba's primary oil supplier since 2025 – has temporarily suspended deliveries following pressure from Washington, leaving Cuban reserves reportedly below three weeks' capacity.
Dr. Guo Cunhai, a Latin American affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warns this strategy aims to create cascading failures: "By strangling energy supplies, the U.S. seeks to collapse economic activity first, then exploit resulting social tensions. It's economic warfare designed to provoke internal destabilization."
The crisis stems from 2025 U.S. naval operations disrupting Venezuelan oil shipments, compounded by this year's secondary sanctions targeting third-party suppliers. Cuban residents currently endure daily blackouts lasting 8-10 hours, with public transportation reliability dropping to 45% according to local reports.
Analysts suggest the measures could backfire geopolitically. "This aggressive approach may accelerate Latin American nations' shift toward multilateral energy partnerships," Guo noted, referencing recent expanded cooperation between Caribbean states and Asian energy exporters.
