The Middle East has entered its most precarious period since the Gaza conflict began in October 2023, according to regional security experts, following direct military exchanges between Iran and Israel this week. The shift from proxy warfare to state-to-state confrontation marks a critical turning point in regional stability.
Niu Xinchun, a professor at the China-Arab States Research Institute of Ningxia University, warned that the conflict now involves “two sovereign states with significant military capabilities,” unlike previous engagements with non-state actors. Speaking to China Media Group, he emphasized that the situation carries unprecedented risks for regional security architectures and global energy markets.
The professor highlighted Washington’s evolving role as a complicating factor: “While initially declaring neutrality, the U.S. has now confirmed its assistance in bolstering Israel’s air defenses against Iranian missiles.” This development, he cautioned, could trigger retaliatory strikes against American military bases across the Middle East.
Analysts suggest the escalation comes at a sensitive juncture for global markets, with shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz – through which 21% of global oil consumption passes – potentially at risk. The tensions also raise questions about impacts on China’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects in the region.
As diplomatic efforts intensify, the coming weeks will test crisis management mechanisms between major powers. Niu concluded with a stark warning: “Every actor must exercise maximum restraint to prevent this confrontation from spiraling into a regional conflagration.”
