After a devastating 15-month conflict, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a three-phase ceasefire-for-hostage deal mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States on January 15. As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, questions arise about how his administration could influence the implementation of this deal and the broader dynamics of the Palestine-Israel conflict.
Biden and Trump Both Claim Credit
In his farewell address from the Oval Office on January 15, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the ceasefire agreement, claiming it mirrored the “precise contours” of a proposal he made on May 31, 2024. He praised the “dogged and painstaking” efforts of American diplomacy, stating, “My diplomacy never ceased in their efforts to get this done.”
Biden further remarked, “This plan was developed and negotiated by my team and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration.”
However, President-elect Donald Trump was quick to assert his role in brokering the agreement. “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November,” Trump stated on his social media platform, Truth Social, referring to his recent election win. He added that his administration would “seek peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our allies.”
Trump’s team claimed that the Biden administration had been unable to secure a lasting ceasefire until Trump and his newly appointed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, joined the negotiations in Doha. A weekend meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Witkoff reportedly led to a breakthrough in the stalled talks, with Witkoff “doing more to sway Netanyahu in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year,” according to two Arab officials quoted by The Times of Israel.
Trump’s Potential Impact on the Conflict
As the first phase of the ceasefire agreement takes effect on Sunday, the eve of Trump’s inauguration as the 47th U.S. president, attention turns to how his administration might shape its outcome.
Wang Jin, assistant director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Northwest University of China, believes that the agreement’s conclusion is closely tied to Trump’s impending presidency. “The U.S. exerted significant pressure, which was a crucial external factor for all parties, including Israel and Hamas, in making their decisions,” Wang told CGTN.
During the final stages of the negotiations, envoys from both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration were involved, a rare occurrence in American history. This dual involvement underscores the importance the U.S. places on resolving the conflict and the potential shift in approach under Trump.
Trump’s first term in office offers some clues to his potential strategies. Known for his unconventional diplomacy, Trump previously moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and brokered the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations. These actions signaled a shift in U.S. policy toward the Middle East, emphasizing direct deals and a transactional approach.
Challenges Ahead
Implementing the ceasefire agreement will require careful navigation of regional dynamics. The first stage involves a ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas in Gaza, and the release of hostages and prisoners by both sides.
Trump’s assertive style may influence how the U.S. engages with the parties involved. His administration’s policies could prioritize strong alliances with Israel while seeking new avenues to address Palestinian concerns.
However, balancing these relationships will be critical to maintaining stability. The international community will be watching closely to see if Trump’s return to the White House will bring about lasting peace or further complicate the already volatile situation.
Reference(s):
Analysis: How could Trump's return shape Palestine-Israel conflict?
cgtn.com
