Analysts Doubt Resolution in South Korea’s Deepening Political Crisis

South Korea’s political crisis has escalated to unprecedented levels after impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol resisted arrest over a failed martial law decree on Friday. Analysts suggest that finding a resolution to the current impasse will not be easy, as the nation grapples with deepening divisions and public unrest.

David Tizzard, an assistant professor of Korean studies at Seoul Women’s University, believes that the turmoil is rooted not just in legal or political disputes but also in the physical spaces where these clashes are unfolding. “We have the politics of space coming back to real life,” Tizzard told CGTN, highlighting how supporters and opponents of Yoon, along with investigative bodies and law enforcement, have taken to the streets in an effort to assert their presence.

This phenomenon contrasts with the increasing tendency for political discourse to occur online, bringing a tangible and immediate dimension to the crisis. “It’s really almost impossible to see how things move forward,” Tizzard noted, emphasizing the challenges in resolving the standoff.

The crisis follows a week of escalating tensions that began with Yoon’s declaration of martial law on December 3. The decree led to widespread condemnation and protests, culminating in the National Assembly’s impeachment of Yoon on December 14. The impeachment suspended Yoon from office, leaving the country in a state of political limbo as the Constitutional Court deliberates on the matter.

Yoon’s resistance to arrest on charges of insurrection—linked to his alleged authorization of force to block legislative votes—has further intensified public outrage and street demonstrations. On Friday, anti-corruption investigators attempted to arrest Yoon at his official residence, but they were met with resistance from his security detail and supporters, resulting in a six-hour standoff. The investigators eventually retreated due to safety concerns.

Adding to the gravity of the situation, Tizzard pointed out that the political unrest coincides with a national mourning period for victims of a recent airplane crash. “Political leaders are meant to inspire the population and lead us forward with messages of hope, and yet we see such division,” he said.

Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, offered a stark assessment of Yoon’s strategy in the face of mounting legal and public opposition. “Delay, delay, delay. I think he is hoping that somehow public opinion will come over to his side. It is highly doubtful,” Tangen told CGTN.

While Yoon enjoys strong support among older South Koreans, Tangen pointed out that younger generations and the majority of the population, as reflected in polls, do not share this sentiment. “The charges against Yoon are severe,” he explained, citing a ten-point indictment from the anti-graft body that accuses him of authorizing force to remove legislators from parliament to prevent a vote against his martial law declaration. “That does not sound like a legal way of doing things,” Tangen remarked.

Despite the political upheaval, Tangen noted that South Korea’s powerful corporate conglomerates, or “chaebols,” are unlikely to be significantly affected. “This may be dismissed as another incident in South Korean history, obviously not something to be proud of, but it’s not going to affect the large chaebols,” he said, adding that companies like Samsung, which plan years in advance, are expected to weather the crisis without major disruptions.

As the country awaits the Constitutional Court’s decision, the public remains divided. “It’s a populist country. We need to see what’s happened with the people. Will they still be there on Monday? Will they return back to work?” Tizzard asked, noting the fast-paced nature of South Korean society and the potential for rapid developments in the coming days.