Syrian Rebels Overthrow Assad Regime: Expert Analyzes Government’s Misjudgment

Syrian rebels announced early on Sunday that they have seized control of Damascus and overthrown President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year regime. The televised statement declared the liberation of the capital and the release of all prisoners, marking a significant turning point in the nation’s tumultuous history.

Since late November, the situation in Syria has escalated dramatically, with rebel forces making rapid advances across the country. The swift progression culminated in the capture of Damascus, signaling the end of Assad’s long-standing rule.

In an exclusive interview with China Media Group, Li Zixin, assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, offered insights into the factors contributing to the rebels’ success.

“From the Syrian government’s perspective, there was a significant misjudgment of the political landscape,” Li explained. “In recent years, the government believed that rebel groups were unlikely to overturn the existing political order. This overconfidence led to a reduction in military investment, including the abolition of compulsory military service and cuts in defense spending.”

Li emphasized the importance of regional allies in maintaining Syria’s stability. “Support from Hezbollah and Iran has been crucial for the Syrian government,” he noted. “However, the ongoing conflicts in the region, such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, have strained these alliances.”

The shifting global dynamics have also impacted Syria’s defenses. “Russia’s capacity to assist Syria has been severely hampered due to its involvement in Ukraine,” Li said. “The Syrian government now faces the challenge of allocating substantial resources and troops to defend Damascus. This makes it difficult to mount an effective counterattack and reverse the situation on the battlefield.”

Looking ahead, Li commented on the latest trilateral talks between Russia, Türkiye, and Iran. “While these talks may establish a framework for resolving the Syrian crisis, each country has its own concerns,” he observed. “Their differing priorities may limit the effectiveness of any collective action.”

As the world watches the unfolding events in Syria, the future remains uncertain. The rebels’ victory marks a new chapter for the nation, but the path forward will likely be fraught with challenges and complex geopolitical dynamics.

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