The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new report forecasting a significant surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales in the coming years, predicting that by 2035, every other car sold globally will be electric. This marks a pivotal shift in the automotive industry, with profound implications for global oil demand and environmental sustainability.
According to the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2024, EV sales are expected to rise from 14 million in 2023 to around 17 million in 2024, representing more than one in five cars sold worldwide. The agency highlights that this growth is not confined to a single region but is a global phenomenon.
Asia Leads the Charge
The report estimates that in 2024, EV sales in China will increase to about 10 million, accounting for approximately 45 percent of the country’s domestic car sales. The Chinese mainland continues to be a major driver of global EV adoption, bolstered by supportive policies and expanding infrastructure.
Emerging markets in Asia, such as Vietnam and Thailand, are also experiencing accelerated demand for EVs. This rise in adoption across diverse economies underscores the universal appeal and feasibility of electric transportation solutions in the region.
Global Impact on Oil Demand
The IEA forecasts that the rapid uptake of EVs will lead to a peak in oil demand for road transport around 2025. If countries adhere to their stated energy and climate policies, oil demand could decrease by six million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 and by 11 million bpd by 2035—over a tenth of current total oil demand.
“Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The surging demand for EVs over the next decade is set to remake the global auto industry and significantly reduce oil consumption for road transport.”
Growth in the United States and Europe
In addition to Asia, the EV market share in the United States and Europe is expected to reach over 11 percent and 25 percent respectively in 2024. This expansion reflects increasing consumer interest, technological advancements, and government incentives promoting cleaner transportation options.
A New Era for the Automotive Industry
The IEA’s report suggests that the escalating shift toward electric mobility is reshaping the automotive landscape. With half of all cars sold globally projected to be electric by 2035, manufacturers, investors, and policymakers are urged to adapt to this transformative trend.
The report emphasizes the need for continued support in developing charging infrastructure, enhancing battery technologies, and implementing policies that facilitate the transition to electric vehicles globally.
Reference(s):
IEA report: Half of all cars sold globally set to be electric by 2035
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