Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed his readiness to sign a minerals deal with the United States, signaling a potential step towards post-conflict recovery. However, significant challenges remain, experts caution.
\"The agreement that's on the table will be signed if the parties are ready,\" Zelenskyy told UK media following a landmark summit in London.
The deal, intended to help end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, fell through on Friday after a heated exchange in the Oval Office.
Zelenskyy had traveled to Washington for a full White House visit to finalize a U.S.-Ukraine agreement for the joint exploitation of Ukraine's vast mineral resources, an integral part of a U.S.-brokered peace deal.
During their meeting, former President Trump criticized Zelenskyy, urging him to be more \"thankful\" for U.S. support over the three-year conflict. Trump emphasized that without U.S. assistance, Ukraine would have been conquered by Russia.
The proposal included financial incentives for the U.S. to support a truce, despite Trump's repeated refusals to commit U.S. military forces as a backup to European peacekeeping troops.
According to Zhao Huirong, a research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Ukraine had previously viewed NATO membership as the ultimate security guarantee. However, Trump's strategy of maximum pressure has forced Ukraine to lower its expectations.
Zhao explained that Kyiv is now seeking security assurances through military aid, including training, weapons, ammunition, and even local arms production within Ukraine.
After the confrontational exchange, Zelenskyy left the Oval Office shortly after being asked to leave, foregoing a planned joint press conference. Consequently, the minerals deal remained unsigned.
Challenges for a Minerals Deal and Peace Agreement
Zhao Huirong highlighted multiple challenges in reaching a minerals agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine. Key issues include differences over security guarantees and European interest in mineral cooperation with Ukraine, creating competition between Europe and the U.S.
Additional uncertainties involve Ukraine's actual mineral reserves, as well as the cost and complexity of mineral extraction.
At a summit hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Ukraine's allies rallied support for Zelenskyy, with many European leaders pledging increased spending on security and forming coalitions to defend any potential truce.
Zhao analyzed that Ukraine will likely strengthen its engagement with European nations before resuming negotiations with the U.S. Given Ukraine's vulnerable position on the battlefield, continued U.S. support is crucial to prevent further losses in future talks.
Experts predict that ongoing U.S. pressure and efforts to promote a ceasefire could lead to a truce between Russia and Ukraine within the next six months to a year.
French President Emmanuel Macron, returning from the London summit, stated that France and Britain aim to propose a partial one-month truce with Russia.
During Sunday's meeting, Zelenskyy reaffirmed that Ukraine would not concede any territory to Russia as part of a peace deal.
\"Such a ceasefire is unlikely to lead to a permanent peace agreement as territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine will remain unresolved, with both sides likely presenting their own interpretations of the territorial status quo,\" Zhao concluded.
