As geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific evolve, the U.S. Department of War's newly released 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS) signals a calibrated approach toward China. The document, unveiled on January 23, emphasizes deterrence over confrontation, marking a departure from the Trump administration's 2018 characterization of China as a "revisionist power." Instead, it prioritizes preventing regional hegemony while acknowledging the possibility of a "decent peace" through balanced power dynamics.
Analysts note the strategy aligns with historical U.S. approaches, such as Obama's 2011 "Pivot to Asia," but diverges in its transactional emphasis on allied burden-sharing. The NDS explicitly rules out regime change or economic strangulation, focusing instead on military readiness to counter attempts to dominate strategic zones like the First Island Chain. This shift reflects a recognition of China's irreversible rise and the need for managed competition.
Key U.S. allies in Asia, including Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, are urged to increase defense spending and regional leadership. The strategy's "America First" ethos prioritizes avoiding over-extension while maintaining red lines against Chinese dominance. Experts suggest this approach leaves room for limited cooperation, provided Beijing respects Washington's core security interests.
While the document avoids apocalyptic rhetoric, it underscores unresolved tensions in cross-strait relations and South China Sea disputes. The Chinese mainland has yet to formally respond, but state-affiliated scholars have cautiously welcomed the tempered tone compared to previous administrations.
