As global economic uncertainties persist, China is refining its development strategy to bolster domestic demand and long-term economic resilience. The upcoming fourth plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee in October will prioritize discussions on the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), a blueprint critical to sustaining growth amid shifting international dynamics.
Shifting Economic Sentiment Recent statements from the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau highlight growing confidence in China’s economic trajectory. While April’s meeting emphasized concerns over external shocks, July’s assessment noted “vibrant and resilient” performance, with first-half 2025 GDP growth reaching 5.3% year-on-year. This optimism follows stabilizing trade relations with the U.S. and a rebound in export growth despite earlier tariff pressures.
Policy Priorities Take Shape The CPC has doubled down on demand-side measures, including accelerated fiscal spending and liquidity support for businesses. Central and local government expenditures surged 8.9% year-on-year in early 2025, reversing previous contractions. Monetary policy remains accommodative, though analysts note a measured approach to rate adjustments amid pressure on banking margins.
Plans to boost service consumption and urban infrastructure upgrades signal a diversified toolkit for growth. The National Development and Reform Commission has also hinted at innovative fiscal mechanisms to strengthen local government finances.
Long-Term Vision in Focus With the 15th Five-Year Plan poised to address structural reforms and technological self-reliance, October’s plenary session will set the tone for China’s next phase of development. As Yi He, Huatai Securities’ chief macroeconomist, observes: “Stability remains paramount, but the emphasis on new quality productive forces underscores China’s commitment to sustainable, innovation-driven growth.”
