Editor's note: Andrey Kortunov, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is director general (2011-2023) and academic director (2024-2025) of the Moscow-based Russian International Affairs Council. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.
The recent U.S. tariff hikes, framed as "reciprocal," have reignited fears of a global trade war, with implications extending far beyond immediate economic losses. Analysts warn that these protectionist measures could trigger structural shifts in global supply chains, regional trade alliances, and multilateral cooperation.
While nations like Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) face limited direct impact due to preexisting sanctions, experts caution that systemic risks loom large. Potential outcomes include rising global inflation, slower economic growth, and a retreat from cross-border collaboration on critical issues like climate change and AI governance.
Moscow’s strategic calculus highlights the dilemma: short-term geopolitical gains from Western fragmentation contrast with long-term vulnerabilities. As global demand for commodities weakens, energy-dependent economies could face shrinking exports and currency instability.
With U.S. unilateralism prompting nations to prioritize regional trade blocs, the future of globalization remains uncertain. Emerging fractures in the international economic order underscore the urgent need for adaptive strategies among policymakers and investors alike.
