In the fourth quarter of 2024, China’s year-on-year GDP growth rate rebounded to 5.4% from 4.6% in the third quarter, surpassing market expectations of 5%. The robust expansionary policies implemented since the end of September significantly boosted the economic momentum in the final quarter.
Exports Drive Industrial Growth
Exports played a crucial role in this rebound. Under the threat of tariffs and an accelerated overseas expansion by Chinese enterprises, the year-on-year export of general machinery surged by 15 percentage points to 29%. Household appliance exports grew by 4 percentage points to 14.1%, and automobile exports also improved remarkably in December. These export increases corresponded with a rise in industrial output, as the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value climbed to 6.2% from 5.4% in November, exceeding market expectations.
Consumer Spending Shows Positive Signs
Consumer spending also demonstrated growth. The nominal year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in December increased to 3.7% from 3% in November. Items related to trade-in policies, such as household appliances, communication equipment, and daily necessities, were key drivers of this retail sales growth.
Mixed Results in Fixed Asset Investment
Fixed asset investment experienced a slight decrease, with the year-on-year growth rate in December slipping to 3.2% from 3.3% in November. Midstream and upstream manufacturing industries maintained high levels of activity. Investments in special equipment, metal products, general equipment, non-ferrous smelting, and other industries registered robust year-on-year growth rates ranging from 10.7% to 19.7%. Conversely, investment in downstream industries like food, automobile manufacturing, and electronic equipment manufacturing showed signs of slowing.
Real Estate Sector Faces Challenges
Real estate development investment continued to decline, with its year-on-year decrease widening to 13.3% in December from 11.6% in November. Despite this, the two-year compound growth rate of real estate investment is marginally recovering, attributable to improved demand under supportive policies. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales revenue in December increased to 2.4% from 1% in November.
Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the momentum gained in late 2024 suggests a positive trajectory for China’s economy. Continued policy support and strong performances in key sectors like exports and manufacturing could further bolster growth. However, challenges remain, particularly in the real estate sector and certain downstream industries. Close monitoring of these areas will be essential for sustaining economic stability and growth in the coming year.
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
