The recent dramatic developments in Syria have reshaped the country’s trajectory, ending decades of Bashar al-Assad’s rule and plunging the region into a new phase of uncertainty. With the fall of Damascus and the Assad government in disarray, the political and military dynamics of Syria and the broader Middle East are rapidly evolving. This shift significantly impacts regional players such as Türkiye, the United States, and beyond.
The collapse of the Syrian government marks a pivotal moment in the country’s protracted civil war. Although the transfer of power appears less like a battlefield defeat and more like a negotiated handover, it signals the end of an era dominated by Assad’s rule.
Armed opposition forces, mainly the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have surged southward, capturing Aleppo, Hama, and Homs before advancing on the capital. These gains, supported by widespread defections within Assad’s military, demonstrate the dwindling capacity of the political power to maintain control. Damascus, once a symbol of central authority, now faces political and social fragmentation, with opposition forces consolidating power across northern and western Syria.
Notably, HTS has sought to project an image of moderation, distancing itself from extremist roots by engaging diplomatically with various factions, including Kurdish groups and minority communities. This strategic rebranding underscores a calculated effort to gain international legitimacy and secure its role in post-Assad Syria.
Türkiye’s Strategic Calculations
Türkiye’s involvement in Syria has reached a critical juncture. For years, Ankara has pursued a multifaceted strategy aimed at securing its southern border, countering Kurdish autonomy movements, and managing refugee flows. The recent developments have intensified Türkiye’s role as a key stakeholder in shaping Syria’s future.
Türkiye-backed forces, operating under the Syrian National Army (SNA), have played a significant role in stabilizing areas vacated by Assad’s forces. Meanwhile, Türkiye’s tacit approval of HTS movements through its controlled zones highlights Ankara’s pragmatic approach to navigating the conflict’s complexities. However, this strategy carries risks, particularly as HTS expands its territorial reach and asserts greater control.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized the need for a peaceful and inclusive resolution to the Syrian conflict. However, Türkiye’s geopolitical priorities, including its stance on Kurdish autonomy and its broader regional aspirations, place Ankara in a delicate balancing act. The presence of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S.-led coalition in eastern Syria, further complicates Türkiye’s calculus, raising questions about potential clashes over territorial and political influence.
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Shifting dynamics in Syria highlight a nation on the brink of change
cgtn.com
