On September 28, Lebanon’s Hezbollah confirmed that the Israeli army had killed its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in an attack on Beirut. This significant development raises critical questions about the future of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. Will Nasrallah’s assassination trigger further escalation by Hezbollah, or does it present a strategic window for realignment and de-escalation in the region?
Since assuming leadership in 1992 after the death of Abbas al-Musawi, Nasrallah had been the face of Hezbollah. Despite his charismatic leadership, Hezbollah is not a one-man operation. The organization has a strong command structure capable of replacing lost leaders and reorganizing for continuous operations.
While Nasrallah’s death is symbolically significant, Hezbollah is poised to continue as both a political and military organization in Lebanon. A new leader is expected to take over, potentially pursuing an even more extreme agenda against Israel, much like Nasrallah did after succeeding al-Musawi and transforming the group into a more formidable force.
Hezbollah extends beyond a militant group; it is a political movement with representation in the Lebanese parliament, extensive social services, and thousands of dedicated supporters. These supporters form a robust base from which the organization can recruit. Coupled with strong ties to Iran, Hezbollah is likely to remain well-resourced despite changes in leadership.
Iran’s Strategic Reaction
Iran holds significant influence over Hezbollah’s potential response to Nasrallah’s killing. Some Western nations view Hezbollah as an Iranian proxy, asserting that Tehran provides the arms and financial support essential for Hezbollah’s role in the “axis of resistance” against Israeli and American influence.
However, Iran is unlikely to push for an abrupt escalation. Historically, Tehran has shown a preference for measured reactions, especially when high losses affect Lebanon. Iran may advise Hezbollah’s new leadership to refrain from initiating a full-scale conflict with Israel, considering its broader geopolitical concerns. These include ongoing negotiations over its nuclear program, economic sanctions, domestic issues, and relationships with neighboring countries in the Middle East.
Indeed, Iran has a history of allowing its allied groups to recover from setbacks. Iranian-backed proxy forces have demonstrated resilience following the loss of key figures in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and Hezbollah is no exception. Instead of urging swift retaliation, Iranian political leaders might encourage Hezbollah to maintain its stance of resistance while preserving its capabilities for future engagements.
Reference(s):
Nasrallah's death: A turning point in Israeli-Hezbollah conflict?
cgtn.com
