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China’s Third Plenum: Charting the Course Toward National Rejuvenation by 2049

The upcoming Third Plenary Session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, scheduled for 2024, is garnering significant global attention. This Third Plenum is pivotal as it will deliberate on the vision, principles, and policies set by President Xi Jinping, aiming to realize China’s great rejuvenation by 2049, marking the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.

Historically, third plenums are crucial in setting the nation’s economic direction. This upcoming session is especially significant as it will confirm China’s overarching politico-economic vision and establish guiding economic principles for the foreseeable future, formulating initial operational policies that will steer the country toward its long-term goals.

Reflecting on the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013 provides context. That session sought to comprehensively deepen reform across approximately 60 areas with 336 major measures. China highlights achievements since then in environmental sustainability and social welfare as testaments to the success of those reforms.

Environmental progress is evident when comparing Beijing’s air quality from 2013 to today. A decade ago, thick smog often enveloped the city, limiting visibility and affecting health. Now, Beijing experiences an additional 95 blue-sky days annually, transforming the once fleeting “APEC blue” into a lasting “Beijing blue.”

Advancements in China’s social security system are also notable. In 2004, basic medical insurance covered only 204 million people, representing 15.7% of the population. Today, coverage has expanded to 1.334 billion people, or 94.6% of the population, marking the establishment of the world’s largest social security and medical care system by population. While improving the quality of care remains a priority, the broad coverage signifies a substantial leap forward in social welfare.

Challenges, however, persist. In his report to the 20th CPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping acknowledged ongoing issues in key reform areas. These include disparities in development and income distribution between urban and rural regions, and difficulties in employment, education, medical services, childcare, elderly care, housing, and ecological conservation and environmental protection. Chinese economists emphasize the need to improve market efficiency for resources, overcome challenges to a unified national market, and bolster confidence among private entrepreneurs.

The upcoming Third Plenum is motivated by these challenges and aims to address them comprehensively. A key concept driving China’s next stage of reform is the emphasis on “new quality productive forces.” This concept is central to achieving the country’s ambitious goals and is integral to a series of nested ideas that frame China’s economic vision.

China’s grand objective is the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” pursued through “Chinese modernization.” This modernization is fueled by “high-quality development,” which in turn is powered by “new quality productive forces.” These forces are driven by “indigenous innovation,” particularly in science and technology.

The focus on “new quality productive forces” signifies a shift towards a growth model that values quality over quantity. It underscores the importance of scientific innovation in transforming industries, developing emerging sectors, enhancing industrial chains, and promoting green transitions—all supported by intelligent information systems. Implementing this vision requires breakthroughs in science and technology, as well as systemic reforms to modernize sci-tech management and eliminate bottlenecks.

In announcing the Third Plenum, the CPC Politburo stressed that advancing Chinese modernization necessitates law-based governance, with major reforms supported by legislation.

It’s important to note that in the Chinese context, “reform” does not simply mean reducing government intervention in favor of market forces. Instead, it involves optimizing both government and market functions, and enhancing collaboration between state-owned enterprises and private companies. Provisions include enhancing a modern enterprise system and creating an even playing field for all market participants.

The most significant takeaway from the upcoming Third Plenum is expected to be the scope of its vision and the comprehensiveness of its policies. As China stands at a pivotal point in its development, the decisions made during this session will have profound implications for its future trajectory toward 2049.

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