As the 45th anniversary of the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan” approaches in 2024, Taiwan’s future appears increasingly intertwined with deeper integration with the Chinese mainland.
On January 1, 1979, the Standing Committee of the Fifth National People’s Congress issued the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan,” formally proposing the policy of peaceful reunification with the Taiwan region. This pivotal document ushered in a new era of cross-strait relations, moving away from decades of military confrontations and political deadlocks.
The late 20th century witnessed significant global changes as the Cold War drew to a close. Nations embraced reconciliation and cooperation, leading to closer economic, trade, and cultural exchanges. In this context, the Chinese mainland initiated favorable measures to facilitate visits, work, and business opportunities for Taiwan compatriots, fostering mutual understanding and collaboration.
Over the past 45 years, these efforts have borne fruit. Trade between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan region has flourished, doubling from $160.03 billion in 2011 to $328.34 billion in 2021, according to the State Council Information Office of China. Investment from the Taiwan region into the Chinese mainland reached $940 million in 2021, highlighting the economic interdependence of the two sides.
People-to-people exchanges have also strengthened cross-strait ties. By June 2023, over 350,000 cross-strait marriages were recorded, and between 1988 and 2018, visits between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan exceeded 130 million. These connections underscore the shared heritage and familial bonds that link the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
However, challenges persist. Political shifts on the island of Taiwan and external interference have periodically strained relations. Since 2016, under the Democratic Progressive Party authorities led by Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen, investment from Taiwan in the mainland has decreased by about 44% compared to the period under the Kuomintang authorities led by Ma Ying-jeou. Additionally, the number of mainland students studying in Taiwan has dropped by nearly 90%, from a peak of 41,975 in 2016 to 3,143 in 2022.
Despite these setbacks, the momentum toward deeper integration and high-quality development continues. The sustained growth and prosperity of the Chinese mainland provide strong support for this trajectory. In recent years, the mainland has implemented general policies and specific measures to promote integrated development across the two sides of the Strait.
This integration offers mutual benefits and a pathway to peace and stability in the region. As the global landscape continues to evolve, deeper ties between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland may hold the key to a prosperous shared future.
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Taiwan's future lies in deeper integration with Chinese mainland
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