China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) marks its 10th anniversary this year, a milestone that invites reflection on its impact and future trajectory. Initially conceived by President Xi Jinping as a strategic plan to connect China with Europe through Central Asia, the BRI has since expanded its reach to Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
The BRI has become emblematic of China’s global economic ambitions and its increasing influence on the world stage. With a vast array of infrastructure projects, trade agreements, and development programs, the initiative aims to foster economic growth by enhancing regional connectivity and cooperation.
According to a World Bank policy paper published in 2019, the BRI could have significant global benefits. The report suggests that the initiative could increase global income by 0.7 percent by 2030, lifting 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million out of moderate poverty. However, the report also notes a potential rise in global carbon dioxide emissions, emphasizing the need for sustainable development practices.
Looking ahead, China’s focus for the BRI is shifting towards science and technology, and industrial transformation. Leveraging its comprehensive industrial and supply chain capabilities—being the only country with all industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification—China aims to promote high-level industrial cooperation with BRI partner countries. Advances in areas such as new energy vehicles, high-speed rail, renewable energy, and power infrastructure offer new opportunities for collaboration.
President Xi has emphasized the importance of cultivating new growth areas within the BRI, including health, green development, and digital technologies. Initiatives in smart cities, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and e-commerce are set to become new pillars of the initiative. China’s leadership in mobile payments can enhance “Silk Road e-commerce,” boosting international trade and extending China’s global influence.
To enhance the quality and sustainability of BRI projects, there is a growing emphasis on risk management and financial viability. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are increasingly encouraged to adopt models such as “Build-Operate-Transfer” (BOT), aligning their interests with the long-term success of projects. This shift aims to ensure that investments are recouped through the efficient operation of infrastructure over time, fostering more prudent project selection and management.
In Kenya, for example, the construction of an expressway in Nairobi under a public-private partnership model demonstrates this new approach. Such models are expected to become more prevalent, promoting sustainable development and shared benefits among stakeholders.
Over the next decade, the BRI is projected to significantly increase trade volume among participating countries, potentially adding $2.5 trillion to global trade. This growth could contribute to reducing global inequalities and fostering economic globalization. Moreover, the initiative may facilitate a realignment in the international order, reflecting China’s vision for global development.
As the Belt and Road Initiative enters its second decade, its evolution will be closely watched by the international community. The focus on technological innovation, sustainable practices, and inclusive growth will be critical to its continued success and impact on the global economy.
Reference(s):
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