Over the past three decades, more than 75 percent of the world’s land has become permanently drier, according to a UN-backed report released on Monday during the COP16 talks on desertification in Saudi Arabia.
The study by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) reveals that dry land now covers approximately 40 percent of Earth’s land mass, excluding Antarctica. This significant shift could potentially affect up to five billion people by the year 2100.
“Some 77.6 percent of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period,” the report states. This trend poses an existential threat as dry regions, where agriculture is challenging, expanded by 4.3 million square kilometers between 1990 and 2020—an area about a third the size of India.
The alarming findings coincide with a 12-day meeting in Riyadh for the 16th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16) under the UNCCD, focusing on land protection, restoration, and drought response amid ongoing climate change.
Permanent Transformation of Climates
Aridity, defined as a chronic shortage of water, now affects 40.6 percent of Earth’s land mass, up from 37.5 percent 30 years ago. The most impacted areas include nations bordering the Mediterranean, southern Africa, southern Australia, and certain regions of Asia and Latin America.
“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” said Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were, and this change is redefining life on Earth,” he added.
Global Warming as the Culprit
The report attributes these changes largely to global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, which alter rainfall patterns and increase evaporation rates. “For the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world,” noted Barron Orr, UNCCD Chief Scientist. He warned of “potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points.”
Far-Reaching Consequences
The chronic water shortages are expected to lead to soil degradation, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity, and forced migration. Currently, 2.3 billion people live in expanding dry areas. Projections indicate a worst-case scenario where up to five billion people could be living under such conditions as the planet continues to warm.
Calls for Immediate Action
To combat these dire trends, scientists urge nations to “integrate aridity metrics into existing drought monitoring systems,” improve soil and water management, and “build resilience in vulnerable communities.” The COP16 conference serves as a critical platform for countries to collaborate on solutions to address the escalating challenges posed by permanent aridity.
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COP16 report warns three-quarters of global land 'permanently drier'
cgtn.com
