Chinese scientists have successfully utilized deep learning methods to make precise predictions regarding Antarctic sea ice for the period from December 2023 to February 2024.
A research team from Sun Yat-sen University and the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) employed a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) neural network to build a seasonal-scale Antarctic sea ice prediction model.
Their forecasts indicated that Antarctic sea ice would remain near historical lows in February 2024, but there was less likelihood of reaching a new record low. The predicted sea ice area (SIA) and sea ice extent (SIE) for February 2024 were 1.441 million square kilometers and 2.105 million square kilometers, respectively, slightly higher than the historic lows observed in 2023.
These predictions were submitted in December and published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences in early February.
Subsequent satellite observations for February validated their predictions. The observed SIA and SIE values for February 2024 were 1.510 million square kilometers and 2.142 million square kilometers, respectively.
According to the researchers, the close alignment between the predictions and observations underscores the reliability of their forecasting system. They noted that the sea ice area and extent from December to February fell within one standard deviation of the predicted values.
The successful comparison between predicted and observed data confirms the accuracy of the ConvLSTM model and its potential for reliable Antarctic sea ice forecasting.
“Our successful prediction not only highlights the importance of enhancing Antarctic sea ice prediction research but also demonstrates the significant application potential of deep learning methods in this critical area,” said Professor Yang Qinghua of Sun Yat-sen University.
This advancement showcases how deep learning techniques can contribute to better understanding and forecasting of Antarctic sea ice patterns, which is crucial for global climate studies and environmental policy-making.
Reference(s):
Chinese scientists study precise Antarctic sea ice prediction
cgtn.com
