A vital system of ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is approaching a critical tipping point, according to a new study published in Science Advances. Scientists warn that a collapse of this oceanic “conveyor belt” could lead to catastrophic global climate changes, affecting weather patterns worldwide, including in Asia.
The AMOC plays a crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate by transporting warm, salty water from the tropics northward and returning cooler water southward. Its potential shutdown could result in dramatic temperature drops in northwestern Europe, significant shifts in global rainfall patterns, and widespread ecological disruptions.
Lead author Rene van Westen, a climate scientist and oceanographer at Utrecht University in the Netherlands, emphasized the urgency of the findings. “We are moving closer to the collapse, but we’re not sure how much closer,” van Westen said. “We are heading towards a tipping point.”
While previous studies suggested that such a collapse might not occur for several centuries, the new research indicates that it could happen much sooner—possibly within the next 100 years or even within the lifetime of young adults today. The exact timing remains uncertain and depends largely on the rate of global warming driven by human activities.
The collapse of the AMOC would have far-reaching consequences. In addition to plunging parts of Europe into a deep freeze, it could alter monsoon systems in Asia, affecting agriculture and water supplies for billions of people. “An AMOC collapse would cause so many ripples throughout the world’s climate that are so abrupt and severe that they would be near impossible to adapt to in some locations,” said Tim Lenton, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter.
Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth Systems Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany, described the study as “a major advance in AMOC stability science” and warned that ignoring these findings would be perilous.
Despite these alarming possibilities, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously expressed medium confidence that an AMOC collapse is unlikely to occur before 2100. However, the new study challenges this assessment, suggesting that the risk may be higher and more imminent than previously thought.
The AMOC is integral to the global climate system, influencing temperature and precipitation patterns across continents. Its disruption could lead to extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and disruptions to marine ecosystems, with cascading effects on global food security and economies.
Understanding and monitoring the health of the AMOC is essential. “It also depends on the rate of climate change we are inducing as humanity,” van Westen noted, highlighting the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate this and other climate risks.
As scientists continue to unravel the complexities of Earth’s climate systems, the new findings underscore the urgency of global efforts to combat climate change. The potential collapse of the AMOC serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of our planet and the far-reaching impacts of human activities.
Reference(s):
Ocean system that moves heat gets closer to collapse, could cause weather chaos
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