The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast to 6% for 2021, reflecting a stronger than expected recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF revised its earlier projection of 5.5% growth, citing increased fiscal support from governments and the accelerating rollout of vaccines as key factors driving the rebound.
However, the IMF cautioned that the recovery is proceeding at different speeds across nations, influenced largely by disparities in vaccine access and pandemic control measures. While some countries are poised for robust growth, others continue to grapple with renewed waves of infections and delayed vaccination campaigns.
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath emphasized the unprecedented nature of the crisis, stating that “this recovery is unique as it hinges on the race between the virus and vaccines, and the ability of policies to provide effective support until the pandemic ends.”
Advanced economies, particularly the United States, are expected to lead the recovery, bolstered by substantial fiscal stimulus packages. The IMF projects that the U.S. economy will grow by 6.4% in 2021. Meanwhile, emerging markets and developing economies face a more challenging path due to limited access to vaccines and constrained policy support.
Asia, home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, is witnessing varied recovery trajectories. China has returned to pre-pandemic growth levels, while other countries in the region are experiencing slower rebounds due to resurgent virus outbreaks and uneven vaccination efforts.
The IMF highlighted that ensuring widespread vaccination is crucial for sustaining the global recovery. Persistent gaps in vaccine access risk prolonging the pandemic, potentially leading to new virus variants and further economic disruptions.
The organization called for increased international cooperation to overcome these challenges, emphasizing that coordinated efforts are essential to support vulnerable nations and secure a swift end to the health crisis.
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International Monetary Fund expects stronger economic recovery
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