China's carbon emissions fell by 1% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking a potential turning point in the world's largest emitter's climate efforts, according to a new study published by Carbon Brief. The decline comes despite a 3.7% increase in electricity demand, with renewable energy installations outpacing consumption growth for the first time.
Renewables Outpace Demand
The power sector – responsible for the majority of China's greenhouse gases – saw emissions drop 3% during this period. Analysts attribute this to record-breaking renewable energy expansion: 212 gigawatts of solar capacity were added in six months, exceeding the U.S.'s total solar capacity as of 2024. Solar now surpasses hydropower in China and is set to overtake wind energy this year.
Structural Shift or Temporary Trend?
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, noted this could signal a 'structural declining trend' rather than previous dips tied to economic slowdowns. 'For the first time, clean energy growth is structurally displacing fossil fuels,' he said.
Challenges Ahead
While progress is notable, experts emphasize the need for acceleration. To meet China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal, annual emissions reductions must average 3% over the next 35 years. 'The current 1% decline shows promise, but consistency is key,' Myllyvirta added.
The findings align with AP analysis suggesting China's emissions 'may have peaked' years ahead of its 2030 target, though officials maintain cautious optimism.
