U.S. Militarization in South China Sea Expected to Intensify, Say Chinese Experts
The U.S.-led militarization of the South China Sea is anticipated to grow despite upcoming changes in U.S. leadership, according to Chinese experts. However, they maintain that overall strategic stability in the region is likely to persist.
At a recent discussion hosted by the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), an organization monitoring maritime activities, experts shared insights on the evolving dynamics in the contested waters.
Shifting Dynamics with New U.S. Leadership
Wu Shicun, director of the academic committee of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, highlighted that while the U.S. military presence is set to increase, the specifics may change with the new administration. “The U.S.-led militarization of the South China Sea will intensify, but will be different as the White House changes hands. Unilateral actions by claimant states will become more diverse,” Wu stated.
He also emphasized that although the “simplified version” of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea can serve as a tool for de-escalation, it may have limited effectiveness in restraining individual nations’ behaviors.
Continued U.S. Military Presence
The SCSPI’s report on navigation and overflight activities indicates a significant U.S. military footprint in the region, with over 5,000 ship-days annually and approximately 8,000 military aircraft sorties. Despite concerns over rising militarization, experts remain cautiously optimistic about the broader strategic outlook.
Professor Hu Bo, director of SCSPI and the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University, noted that both China and the U.S. share a strong consensus on avoiding direct conflict, even as they prepare for worst-case scenarios. “While there are localized tensions, the situation in the South China Sea is far less volatile than some narratives suggest,” Hu commented.
The Philippines’ Evolving Role
Experts also discussed the role of the Philippines, which has historical maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Hu observed that the Philippines’ attempts to leverage U.S.-China strategic competition to advance its territorial ambitions may not align entirely with U.S. interests. “The desire to involve the U.S. directly holds little appeal in Washington,” he said.
Ding Duo, vice director of the Research Center of Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, suggested that the Philippines might continue its low-intensity approach with China, potentially taking advantage of the geopolitical climate to pass domestic legislation such as the Maritime Zone Act to bolster its claims.
Maintaining Stability Amid Increased Activities
Concluding the discussion, experts acknowledged that while the U.S. is likely to continue its involvement in South China Sea affairs, there is hope that freedom of navigation operations will proceed without escalating tensions. The South China Sea remains a vital maritime corridor, with over 1.5 million annual ship transits and around 40% of global goods trade passing through its waters and surrounding straits.
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U.S. militarization of South China Sea to grow, but stability remains
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