This year's Black Friday shopping season has become a high-stakes standoff between U.S. retailers and bargain-hunters, with artificial intelligence reshaping traditional holiday commerce dynamics. As of November 2025, both sides remain locked in what industry analysts describe as "discount chicken" – retailers delaying major promotions while consumers wait for deeper price cuts.
The Trust Deficit
New data reveals only 20% of U.S. shoppers now consider Black Friday their primary holiday shopping start point. A Lightspeed Commerce survey found 84% of consumers suspect retailers artificially inflate pre-sale prices, while WalletHub analysis showed 36% of 2025 Black Friday deals offered no real savings. "Shoppers are weaponizing AI against retailer AI," noted retail strategist Rob Garf, highlighting how consumers now use price-tracking algorithms to detect false discounts.
Economic Pressures Mount
With import tariffs soaring from 2.4% to 17.9% in 2025 according to Yale's Budget Lab, retailers like Upstream Brands report being forced to reduce discounts. "We're absorbing costs just to maintain margins," said company head Dan Peskorse. Deloitte's 2025 survey shows planned Black Friday spending dropping 4% year-over-year – the first decline since 2021.
AI Arms Race Intensifies
The shopping showdown has evolved into technological warfare: 33% of consumers now use generative AI for deal-hunting, while retailers deploy dynamic pricing algorithms controlling 30-40% of digital revenue. This technological clash creates personalized pricing landscapes where two shoppers might see completely different prices for identical items.
As phishing scams surge 620% according to NordVPN data, and 57% of consumers anticipate economic weakening, the 2025 holiday season may mark a permanent shift in global retail patterns. With Christmas inventories carefully calibrated to demand, as Circana's Marshal Cohen observed: "The tree won't be overflowing – but the gifts will be strategic."
