New research indicates that revised U.S. tariffs introduced by the Trump administration may disproportionately harm the American economy compared to other nations, raising concerns among global analysts. A study led by Niven Winchester, an economics professor at Auckland University of Technology, projects the tariffs will reduce U.S. annual GDP by 0.36%, equivalent to $108.2 billion—a steeper decline than impacts forecast for China ($66.9 billion), the EU ($26.6 billion), and Japan ($3.9 billion).
Long-Term Risks for Global Growth
The UK’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warns that current U.S. import tariffs could shrink global GDP by 1.1% by 2030. Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. itself are expected to face the most severe long-term losses, with projected GDP reductions of 3.5%, 2.7%, and 2.5%, respectively. The NIESR also highlights domestic U.S. policies, such as immigration enforcement and rising government debt, as additional risks to economic stability.
Uncertainty Ripples Across Markets
While the analysis excludes retaliatory tariffs, experts caution that prolonged trade tensions could further disrupt supply chains and labor markets. Business professionals and investors are urged to monitor policy shifts closely, as these developments may influence market dynamics and cross-border investment strategies in Asia and beyond.
