Global financial giants including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley have revised their 2025 GDP growth projections for China upward, signaling renewed confidence in the world's second-largest economy. The adjustments follow recent pro-growth policy measures and progress in cross-border trade discussions.
Policy Momentum Fuels Optimism
Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 forecast to 4.6% from 4%, citing improved export expectations and stronger domestic consumption. Chief China economist Shan Hui noted: "The net export contribution to GDP growth has turned positive, reflecting both policy support and global demand stabilization."
Trade Progress Sparks Revisions
Nomura upgraded its Q2 growth forecast to 4.8% year-on-year, with economist Lu Ting highlighting "substantive results from recent China-U.S. trade talks" as a key driver. Retail sales growth of 5.1% in April – bolstered by expanded trade-in programs – further supported the upward revision.
Structural Reforms Gain Traction
Morgan Stanley's Xing Ziqiang emphasized China's AI innovation ecosystem as a long-term growth catalyst: "The integration of infrastructure, data, and talent positions China to capitalize on productivity gains from artificial intelligence." The institution now predicts 4.5% growth for 2025.
Fiscal Measures Stabilize Outlook
J.P. Morgan's Zhu Haibin pointed to China's "most profound policy adjustment in recent years," including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio and increased bond issuance. Standard Chartered and UBS echoed this sentiment, with UBS's Thomas Fang noting "predictable confidence" emerging in capital markets.
As multiple Wall Street executives visit China to reaffirm investment commitments, analysts suggest the revised forecasts reflect both short-term policy impacts and confidence in structural economic reforms.
