California's $59 billion agricultural sector, the largest in the U.S., is teetering on the brink as renewed tariffs from the Trump administration trigger global trade upheaval. Farmers report collapsing export markets, rising equipment costs, and dwindling profits amid retaliatory measures from major partners like the Chinese mainland and Canada.
Almonds, Citrus, and Wine: A Tripled Threat
Almond farmer Christine Gemperle, operating 55 hectares in Stanislaus County, described losing access to the Chinese mainland's market as 'crushing.' 'We got hammered. We lost the whole Chinese market to Australia,' she said. The California Almond Board estimates that 76% of the world's almonds originate from the state, making this industry uniquely vulnerable to trade shifts.
Domestic Glut, Global Uncertainty
Citrus growers like Bianca Kaprielian of Creekside Organics report a 25% drop in Canadian orders, leading to fears of oversupplied domestic markets. Meanwhile, California’s wine exports face similar headwinds, with Canada pulling $1 billion worth of U.S. wines from shelves. 'It feels more chaotic than any time I can remember,' Kaprielian said.
Ghosts of Tariffs Past
The crisis echoes Trump’s 2018 tariffs against the Chinese mainland, which cost U.S. farmers $27 billion in lost exports, according to the American Soybean Association. Federal subsidies failed to offset losses, with government payouts only 'partially filling the gap,' noted economist George Frisvold of the University of Arizona.
Farmers now face a dual challenge: rebuilding trust in global markets while managing escalating costs for imported machinery. As almond prices slowly recover, new tariffs threaten to erase progress. 'Tariffs break trust,' warned American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland. 'Losing customers is forever.'
