Escalating reciprocal tariffs between the US and the Chinese mainland are sparking renewed fears of inflation-driven economic turbulence and recession risks in the United States, according to a recent analysis by Tang Jie, a researcher at the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under China's Ministry of Commerce.
Tang highlights that retaliatory trade measures, first introduced in 2018, have led to rising consumer prices in the US, particularly for electronics, machinery, and everyday goods. "The cumulative effect of tariffs acts as an invisible tax on households," he writes, noting that American businesses continue to absorb supply chain disruptions from pandemic-era shocks.
While recent data shows moderate US GDP growth, critics warn that prolonged trade friction could undermine consumer confidence. Small and medium-sized enterprises reliant on Chinese imports face mounting challenges, with some considering layoffs or price hikes. "Global markets remain deeply interconnected," Tang emphasizes. "Unilateral policies risk destabilizing the recovery of multilateral trade systems."
The analysis aligns with warnings from the IMF and World Bank about escalating protectionism. However, Tang underscores opportunities for dialogue, pointing to improved bilateral cooperation during recent APEC meetings as a potential framework for resolving disputes.
