A perfect storm of economic warning signals—from collapsing consumer confidence to corporate anxiety and fiscal instability—has amplified concerns that the U.S. economy could slip into a recession by 2025, with global implications for markets and trade.
Consumer Sentiment Plunges to 12-Year Low
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline and reaching levels last seen in 2021. The Expectations Index, reflecting short-term economic outlooks, plummeted to 65.2—far below the 80-point threshold that historically signals impending downturns. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, noted 'deepening pessimism' about business conditions and employment prospects.
CFOs Predict 2025 Recession Amid Policy Chaos
A CNBC survey reveals 60% of U.S. CFOs expect a recession in late 2025, with trade policy uncertainty cited as the top risk. Over 30% ranked Washington's 'chaotic' trade actions as their primary external challenge, surpassing inflation and weak demand concerns. Many executives criticized shifting policies for hampering long-term planning.
Moody's Warns of Fiscal Pressures
Moody's credit agency raised alarms about deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, pointing to swelling deficits and rising debt costs. The warning follows its November 2023 decision to revise the U.S. credit outlook to negative, citing accelerated financial risks.
Analysts warn these combined factors—waning consumer spending, corporate caution, and fiscal strains—could create a self-reinforcing economic slowdown. Global markets remain watchful as protectionist policies risk reigniting inflation while accelerating contraction.
