Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent proposal for direct talks with Ukraine has exposed deep divisions over core demands, casting doubt on the viability of resuming negotiations, according to experts on Eastern European affairs.
Roots of Deadlock
Putin called on Sunday for unconditional talks to begin May 15 in Istanbul, reviving discussions from March 2022. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled openness, Sun Zhuangzhi, a scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted a fundamental deadlock: Kyiv insists Russia declare an immediate ceasefire before negotiations, while Moscow demands talks precede any truce. “This procedural impasse masks deeper disagreements,” Sun told China Media Group.
Ceasefire Complexities
Sun emphasized that ceasefires require mutual acknowledgment and formal frameworks, not unilateral declarations. Previous attempts collapsed due to mistrust, underscoring the fragility of ad hoc arrangements. “Negotiations must build on verified commitments,” he said.
Irreconcilable Objectives
Russia seeks binding guarantees against NATO expansion and a halt to Western military aid to Ukraine. Kyiv, however, prioritizes sovereignty guarantees and continued security partnerships. These opposing red lines, Sun argued, leave little room for compromise. The lack of progress in U.S.-mediated talks further complicates efforts.
Path Forward
Despite Putin’s proposal to revisit 2022 draft agreements, experts remain skeptical. Sun cautioned that bridging core demands — from NATO’s role to territorial disputes — will require “extraordinary exertion” from both sides. As geopolitical tensions reshape Asia’s economic and security landscape, global observers await decisive shifts.
