Mounting evidence suggests that aggressive US tariff policies are having unintended consequences, with economists warning that these measures could tip the economy into recession while squeezing American families. A pivotal Yale University study reveals the stark human and economic costs of current trade strategies.
The Budget Lab's April 15 report calculates that average US households stand to lose $4,900 annually due to tariff impacts on consumer prices and wages. By 2025, researchers project the cumulative effect could reduce real GDP growth by 1.1 percentage points – equivalent to erasing $180 billion from national economic output.
"What began as protectionist measures are now functioning like a regressive tax," said a lead author of the study, noting that tariff costs disproportionately affect low-income families through increased prices for essential goods.
The employment outlook appears equally concerning. The Yale models predict 770,000 fewer US jobs by late 2025, potentially pushing unemployment rates up 0.6% from current levels. Sectors from manufacturing to retail face particular vulnerability as trade barriers disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns.
For Asia-focused readers, these developments carry significant implications. Regional exporters may face reduced US demand, while investors monitor potential market volatility. The findings underscore the interconnected nature of global trade systems, where policy decisions in Washington ripple through supply chains and financial markets worldwide.
