China’s economy demonstrated unexpected vigor in the first two months of 2024, with industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all surpassing analyst forecasts, according to official data released Monday. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported 7% year-on-year growth in industrial output—a key gauge of manufacturing activity—while retail sales climbed 5.5%, signaling rebounding domestic consumption.
Sector-Wide Momentum
Fixed-asset investment, a measure of infrastructure and capital spending, rose 4.2% during the period, buoyed by targeted government stimulus measures. Analysts highlight strengthened high-tech manufacturing and renewable energy sectors as drivers of industrial growth. Meanwhile, the Lunar New Year holiday season provided a temporary boost to consumer spending on travel, dining, and electronics.
Mixed Signals Amid Global Headwinds
NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua cautioned that "external uncertainties persist" despite the positive indicators, referencing geopolitical tensions and uneven global demand. The data comes amid renewed international investor interest in Chinese equities, with the CSI 300 Index gaining 5% in February alone.
Policy Focus and Market Reactions
Economists predict Beijing will maintain its pro-growth fiscal policies while exploring targeted support for strategic industries. The stronger-than-expected figures have prompted several investment banks to revise their 2024 GDP growth forecasts upward to between 4.8% and 5.2%.
