Analysts Doubt Quick Resolution to South Korea’s Deepening Political Crisis

South Korea’s political crisis has intensified as impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol resisted arrest over a failed martial law decree on Friday. Analysts suggest that finding a resolution to the current impasse will be challenging.

David Tizzard, an assistant professor of Korean studies at Seoul Women’s University, highlighted the complexity of the situation. “We have the politics of space coming back to real life,” he told CGTN, noting how supporters and opponents of Yoon, along with investigative bodies and law enforcement, have taken to the streets to assert their presence.

This physical manifestation of political conflict contrasts with the recent trend of online discourse, bringing an immediate and tangible dimension to the crisis. “It’s adding a new layer to the unrest,” Tizzard explained.

The turmoil began with President Yoon’s declaration of martial law on December 3, which led to widespread condemnation and protests. The National Assembly impeached Yoon on December 14, suspending him from office as the Constitutional Court deliberates his fate. Yoon’s resistance to arrest on charges of insurrection—linked to his alleged authorization of force to block legislative votes—has further fueled public outrage and street demonstrations.

On Friday, anti-corruption investigators attempted to arrest Yoon at his official residence. Their efforts were met with resistance from Yoon’s security detail and supporters, resulting in a six-hour standoff before the investigators withdrew due to safety concerns.

Tizzard pointed out that the political unrest coincides with a national mourning period for victims of a recent airplane crash. “Political leaders are meant to inspire the population and lead us forward with messages of hope, and yet we see such division,” he said.

The current deadlock poses an unprecedented challenge to South Korea’s pragmatism and resilience. “It’s really almost impossible to see how things move forward,” Tizzard observed.

Public sentiment plays a critical role in shaping the country’s political landscape. “It’s a populist country,” Tizzard noted. “We need to see what’s happened with the people. Will they still be there on Monday? Will they return to work?” He emphasized the fast-paced nature of South Korean society and the potential for rapid developments in the coming days.

Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, offered a stark assessment of Yoon’s strategy amid mounting legal and public opposition. “Delay, delay, delay. I think he is hoping that somehow public opinion will come over to his side. It is highly doubtful,” Tangen told CGTN.

While Yoon enjoys strong support among older South Koreans, Tangen pointed out that younger generations and the majority of the population, as reflected in polls, do not share this sentiment.

The charges against Yoon are severe. Tangen cited a ten-point indictment from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials, accusing the president of authorizing force to remove legislators from parliament to prevent a vote against his martial law declaration. “That does not sound like a legal way of doing things,” Tangen remarked, suggesting that overcoming these allegations will be a significant challenge for Yoon.

Despite the political upheaval, Tangen noted that South Korea’s powerful corporate conglomerates, or “chaebols,” are unlikely to be significantly affected. “This may be dismissed as another incident in South Korean history, obviously not something to be proud of, but it’s not going to affect the large chaebols,” he said. Companies like Samsung, which plan years in advance, are expected to weather the crisis without major disruptions.

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