The Indo-Pacific region is undergoing significant shifts that are reshaping its geopolitical landscape. While much attention has been given to the rise of China, often referred to as the “China shock,” there’s another critical factor at play. Danny Quah, a professor of economics at the National University of Singapore, suggests that changes in how the United States engages with the world—the “U.S. shock”—are equally influential.
China’s growing economic and political influence has introduced new dynamics in trade, security, and international relations throughout the region. However, Professor Quah emphasizes that the shifts in U.S. foreign policy and its approach to international cooperation are profoundly impacting the Indo-Pacific as well.
“It’s not just about China’s rise,” Quah explains. “We must also consider how changes in the United States’ engagement globally are affecting regional dynamics.”
Historically, the U.S. has championed a rules-based international system, promoting multilateralism and cooperation among nations. This approach has fostered shared principles and institutions aimed at ensuring peace and prosperity. In recent years, however, there have been notable changes in U.S. policy. These include a greater emphasis on unilateral actions, prioritizing national security considerations in economic decisions, and expressing concerns about other nations benefiting unfairly from international agreements.
Quah points out that these two shocks—the rise of China and the evolving U.S. stance—are not equivalent but together create a complex environment for countries in the Indo-Pacific. “Nations in the region now face the challenge of navigating relationships with both China and the U.S., each presenting different opportunities and uncertainties,” he says.
Rather than taking sides or assigning blame, Quah encourages a recognition of the dual influences shaping the current geopolitical landscape. “By acknowledging both the ‘China shock’ and the ‘U.S. shock,’ countries can better understand the forces at play and make informed decisions about their strategies and alliances,” he advises.
This nuanced perspective is crucial for policymakers, business leaders, and scholars alike as they assess the region’s future. Understanding the interplay between China’s ascent and the United States’ shifting policies will be essential in addressing the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the Indo-Pacific.
Reference(s):
Two shocks, from China and U.S., reshapes Indo-Pacific, says economist
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