Thirty-two years after establishing diplomatic ties, the relationship between China and South Korea is facing significant challenges. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has shifted the nation’s focus toward the United States, prioritizing this alliance in diplomatic, security, and economic matters. This pivot raises questions about the long-term implications for Seoul’s national interests and regional stability.
Historically, South Korea has navigated a complex geopolitical landscape by maintaining a balanced approach between the Chinese mainland and the United States. Previous administrations recognized the importance of this equilibrium. For instance, former President Moon Jae-in, who served from 2017 to 2022, strived to uphold a balanced foreign policy, opposing formations like a trilateral military alliance with Japan and the U.S., understanding the potential for regional destabilization.
However, under President Yoon, this balance appears to be shifting. A recent survey conducted by the Global Times Institute in South Korea revealed that only 11 percent of respondents believe that the relationship between China and South Korea has become closer and friendlier. The intensifying strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China has further strained these ties, with Seoul seemingly aligning more closely with Washington.
This alignment with the U.S. might not yield positive long-term benefits for South Korea. The Chinese mainland remains South Korea’s most significant economic partner. Trade data from June shows that exports to China are propelling the “growth trend” of Seoul’s exports. Attempts by Seoul to financially “decouple” from China under President Yoon may prove challenging in the foreseeable future.
Beyond economic considerations, relying heavily on the United States for security poses risks. Initiatives such as the Camp David summit, the Nuclear Consultative Group, and increased bilateral and trilateral military exercises with the U.S. and Japan aim to bolster security cooperation. Nevertheless, these measures may not provide the desired deterrent effect against external threats. A substantial portion of the South Korean public shares this concern; an increasing number doubt the U.S. would adequately defend South Korea in the event of an external attack. Consequently, nearly 80 percent of South Koreans now support developing a domestic nuclear weapons program.
This sentiment is alarming, as it could trigger a regional arms race and further destabilize Northeast Asia. Neither excessive dependence on the United States nor pursuing an independent nuclear arsenal offers a viable solution to Seoul’s security challenges.
In light of the volatile security situation on the Korean Peninsula, it is imperative for South Korea to return to a balanced diplomatic strategy. Prioritizing the rebuilding of a strong partnership with China could enhance regional stability and serve South Korea’s long-term national interests.
Reference(s):
From stagnation to synergy: Rebuilding China-South Korea relations
cgtn.com
