Climate change caused by carbon dioxide emissions already present in the atmosphere is projected to shrink the global GDP by about $38 trillion, nearly 20%, by 2050, according to new research published in the journal \”Nature\” on Wednesday. This significant economic impact is expected to occur regardless of how aggressively the world cuts future carbon emissions.
However, the researchers emphasize that reducing greenhouse gas emissions swiftly remains critical to prevent even more severe economic consequences after mid-century. The study suggests that if the planet warms significantly beyond 2 degrees Celsius above mid-19th century levels, the economic fallout could increase by tens of trillions of dollars annually by 2100.
Earth’s average surface temperature has already risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius, leading to intensified heatwaves, droughts, floods, and more destructive tropical storms exacerbated by rising sea levels.
\”Staying under the 2 degrees Celsius threshold could limit average regional income loss to 20 percent, compared to 60 percent in a high-emissions scenario,\” said Max Kotz, lead author of the study and complexity science expert at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
The annual investment required to limit global warming below 2 degrees Celsius—a central goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement—is a small fraction of the potential damages that would be avoided. Economists, however, are divided on the extent of spending needed to avert climate damage. While some advocate for substantial investment now, others argue it may be more cost-effective to wait until societies are wealthier and technologies are more advanced.
This study underscores the urgent need for global cooperation and immediate action to mitigate climate change’s economic impacts. The findings serve as a stark reminder that delaying emission reductions could result in far greater economic losses, affecting nations and economies worldwide.
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Climate impacts set to cut 2050 global GDP by nearly a fifth
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