In recent years, a chorus of Western politicians, media outlets, and think tanks has orchestrated the narrative of “Peak China,” asserting that China’s rise has reached its zenith. They aim to downplay China’s development prospects and suppress expectations of its growth. Since the second quarter of 2023, nearly all major Western media and China-focused scholars have contributed to this discourse, emphasizing China’s economic slowdown.
However, this wave of “Peak China” rhetoric is merely a repackaged version of the longstanding “China’s economic collapse” narrative—a narrative that history has repeatedly proven wrong. Just as previous predictions of China’s collapse were disproven by its sustained growth, this latest iteration is likely to falter.
The Largest “China’s Collapse” Narrative in 35 Years
Since the late 1980s, there have been recurring claims about China’s impending collapse. In 2021, American scholars Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argued that “China’s relative strength has peaked,” marking a resurgence of this narrative. By the first half of 2023, this sentiment gained momentum, with media outlets publishing articles questioning China’s economic future.
These narratives often exaggerate economic data, highlighting weak consumer spending, low investment, and foreign capital outflow to dampen investor confidence and consumer behavior. Yet, such arguments are short-sighted and ignore the broader picture of China’s economic transition towards high-quality development.
Debunking the Malicious Narrative: A Reality Check
China continues to lead the world with its robust real economy. For instance, China’s exports in photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have shown remarkable strength against a sluggish global backdrop:
Photovoltaics: China holds over 50% of the global market share for photovoltaic products, including more than 75% for photovoltaic modules and around 80% for solar cells.
New Energy Vehicles: After being the world’s largest automobile manufacturer for 15 consecutive years, China became the world’s largest automobile exporter in 2023. New energy vehicle exports reached 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%.
These achievements highlight the resilience and dynamism of China’s economy, challenging the pessimistic narratives that predict its decline.
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Latest wave of China's economic collapse narrative will collapse again
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