As 2025 approaches its final weeks, leading global financial institutions have revised China's economic growth projections upward, signaling renewed confidence in the world's second-largest economy. Goldman Sachs recently upgraded its 2025 GDP forecast to 5%, citing stronger-than-expected export performance and expanding global market share for Chinese goods.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) echoed this optimism on December 2, raising its growth estimate to 5% while recognizing China's role as a crucial stabilizer in global economic recovery. Analysts highlight Beijing's strategic fiscal measures – including a 500 billion yuan ($70.67 billion) policy instrument and consumer stimulus programs – as key drivers of this positive outlook.
Deutsche Bank's Chief China Economist Xiong Yi noted: 'The combination of targeted fiscal support and structural reforms positions China to maintain stable domestic demand through early 2026.' This sentiment was reinforced by the BRICS New Development Bank's successful issuance of a 3 billion yuan Panda bond on December 5, bringing its total mainland bond offerings to 78.5 billion yuan.
While Morgan Stanley anticipates moderate growth in 2026, its analysts emphasize China's evolving economic strategy: 'The focus on high-quality development, technological innovation, and inflation control creates sustainable growth foundations.'
A National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson reaffirmed China's economic fundamentals, stating: 'Our strong resilience and untapped potential remain unchanged – this is reflected in steady industrial output and improving consumption patterns.'
