Japan's political landscape faces upheaval as Komeito, the junior partner in the ruling coalition, announced its withdrawal from a 26-year alliance with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The decision, driven by disagreements over political donation reforms, casts uncertainty over LDP leader Sanae Takaichi's path to becoming Japan's first female prime minister and raises questions about policy stability.
Why Komeito Walked Away
Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito cited the LDP's "insufficient" response to a political funds scandal as the catalyst for the split. The party had pushed for stricter corporate donation limits to curb policymaking influence, but the LDP—a major beneficiary of such donations—resisted. Saito called the LDP's stance "extremely regrettable" and confirmed Komeito lawmakers would not support Takaichi in the upcoming parliamentary vote for prime minister.
Takaichi's Uphill Battle
While the LDP remains the largest party in Japan's Diet, losing Komeito's 24 lower house seats weakens its majority. Takaichi must now rely on opposition alliances to secure the 233-seat threshold in the lower house. Analysts note that fragmented opposition parties—including the Constitutional Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party—face policy disagreements, potentially giving Takaichi leverage in runoff voting. However, her ability to negotiate support from smaller parties like the Democratic Party for the People will be critical.
Policy Challenges Ahead
A weakened LDP-led government could delay key domestic reforms, including economic recovery plans and defense spending hikes. Foreign policy priorities, such as coordinating U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming visit and preparing for the APEC Leaders’ Meeting, may also face disruptions due to a prolonged "political vacuum" during the leadership transition. Observers warn that prolonged instability could undermine Japan's role in regional diplomacy and economic partnerships.
As Japan navigates this unprecedented coalition breakup, all eyes remain on whether Takaichi can unite a fractured Diet—and make history in the process.
