U.S. economists are casting doubt on claims that increased tariffs will meaningfully reduce America's $37 trillion national debt, according to a Fortune magazine analysis. While President Donald Trump has framed tariffs as a tool to "pay down debt" and fund public dividends, experts warn the revenue generated pales in comparison to mounting fiscal challenges.
Wharton School economist Joao Gomes noted that while tariffs might offset some costs of proposed legislation, they would barely dent the debt trajectory. "The Congressional Budget Office projects a $3 trillion increase by 2030," he told Fortune. "Tariff income can't reverse this scale."
American Enterprise Institute analyst Desmond Lachman called Trump's $300 billion revenue estimate "a drop in the ocean," emphasizing that July's $60.95 billion debt interest payments alone doubled tariff revenues. "Markets aren't dumb," Lachman added. "They know this arithmetic doesn't solve our dangerous debt path."
The report highlights a growing consensus among economists: While tariffs may slow debt accumulation temporarily, structural fiscal reforms remain essential to address what Lachman describes as a "dangerous trajectory" for the world's largest economy.
